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May 06 2026

AI’s Profit Pushmi-Pulyu

  • May 6, 2026

Capital spending booms are often remembered as periods of IT transformation and optimism. Firms race to expand productive capacity, ushering in a new era of efficiency and growth. The current AI wave fits that description, but there is one underappreciated aspect of the frenzy: The asymmetric impact the capex surge will have on corporate profits today, versus several years from now.

Among the few things untouched by the Obamacare rollout are the rising relative strength patterns of most health care stocks.

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We like when we can find groups inside of broad themes, and these two industries are amongst the strongest in our work right now.

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There are signs the domestic Chinese market may be more accessible to global investors sooner than most think. We explore the implications of these potential changes.

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Year-to-date, equity funds are cash on par with those of the 2000 tech bubble, while bond mutual funds are experiencing net cash outflows for the first time in a decade.

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Stocks with High Quality rankings have outperformed those with Low Quality rankings for the past few months. The junk rally is at or near an end, and investors may want to shift their attention to High Quality stocks.

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The cyclical bull market is approaching its fifth birthday. Should you be nervous? Yes, but not so much because of its age.

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The “dual mandate,” which means the Fed is paying close attention to both inflation and employment, presents a clear dilemma for the Fed when it comes time to decide on a taper.

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Momentum and Value worked in 2013. Materials and Financials were the easiest sectors to exploit; Discretionary and Tech the most difficult. Momentum works in December; Value and Small Caps at the start of the year.

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We find hidden opportunities in Equipment & Services Providers, Coal and Natural Gas. We consider these themes longer term holdings instead of short-term plays

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Our quantitative measures for the group and broad sector continue to improve; we think the recent relative turnaround in these stocks is poised to continue.

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We like Attractive groups that make us cringe at the thought of potentially purchasing them. We take a peek at three groups - Airlines, Education and Managed Care - where we plugged our nose and bought.

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Overall demand slack, stubbornly low velocity of money, an overall stronger dollar, painfully low labor cost inflation and weakness in commodity prices are strong disinflationary forces.

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The Russell 2000 is about five points ahead of Large Caps YTD, and is approaching its April 2011 long-term relative peak. We view this outperformance as their leadership’s last gasp and not a new cycle.

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We don’t think the numbers between now and the Fed’s December meeting will be strong enough to convince it to start tapering this year. No taper until 2014, in our opinion.

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There’s no reason to run for cover if the Early Cyclicals have topped out.

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Some of our alternative valuation measures find the market even pricier than P/E ratios do.

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The severity of the market’s current overvaluation depends on one’s historical vantage point.

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From a pure price action perspective, it’s difficult to find cracks in the bull market’s edifice.

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Inflation measures are tilting lower. The Fed does not see the low inflation reading reverting to a more normal level any time soon. We maintain our view that inflation will be a non-factor for the next six months but will increase moderately in the following six months. Inflation on the producers’ level weakened too. We don’t anticipate a big rise in the near term.

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The U.S. market rates anywhere from mildly overvalued to very overvalued relative to other developed markets. Foreign markets might be the last remaining pocket of yield that isn’t overvalued.

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