AI’s Profit Pushmi-Pulyu
Capital spending booms are often remembered as periods of IT transformation and optimism. Firms race to expand productive capacity, ushering in a new era of efficiency and growth. The current AI wave fits that description, but there is one underappreciated aspect of the frenzy: The asymmetric impact the capex surge will have on corporate profits today, versus several years from now.
Foreign valuations experienced nowhere near the expansion enjoyed by U.S. stocks during the latest bull market, but their cheaper valuations rarely seem to inoculate them from outsized losses during corrections and bear markets.
Read moreThe traditional economic indicators are no longer as relevant as people think, and China’s condition may not be as bad as most fear.
Read moreWe revisit this long-held industry group and explain our positive outlook going forward.
Read moreOur research shows that the best years to “Play The Bounce” are generally ones in which the stock market is heading down into the fourth quarter. We won’t rule out an allocation to the Bounce strategy in the weeks ahead.
Read moreThere are three Ds that are ruining the Fed’s little rate hike plan: the Dollar, Disinflation, and the Decline in wealth effect.
Read moreThe Short Interest Ratio performs well as a factor; on both the long and short sides.
Read moreAmidst the Energy carnage, the Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing group is the exception, having returned over 7% YTD. Refiners are able to perform well in a variety of oil price scenarios—and tend to thrive in a falling crude oil price environment.
Read moreDespite the group’s big losses since May, the results show Small/Micro Cap Biotechs are still richly valued. As market volatility heats up, this group faces additional downside risk.
Read more1) Why The Big Sell-Off In Stocks? 2) Why Didn’t Interest Rates Go Lower? 3) Why Was The Dollar Weaker?
Read moreIn view of the last year’s steep decline in oil prices, Energy has been a frequent headline topic.
Read moreRe-deflation is the period where reflation gives way to deflation or disinflation. It has been so prevalent that it triggered a new “Higher Risk” signal in our Risk Aversion Index.
Read moreWhile this Consumer Discretionary group has not experienced six-plus-years of market outperformance, we think it may be poised for a late-game bounce. An overall lack of housing options may be just what this industry needs to give it a long-awaited boost.
Read moreDeteriorating stock market breadth and worrisome leadership trends both suggest liquidity has already tightened; whether the Fed follows suit in September may now be just a formality.
Read moreThe S&P 500 Energy sector’s latest plunge puts it down by almost a third in the last 14 months. It now belongs to an exclusive list of sectors which have declined 30% on both an absolute basis and relative to the S&P 500!
Read more