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May 06 2026

AI’s Profit Pushmi-Pulyu

  • May 6, 2026

Capital spending booms are often remembered as periods of IT transformation and optimism. Firms race to expand productive capacity, ushering in a new era of efficiency and growth. The current AI wave fits that description, but there is one underappreciated aspect of the frenzy: The asymmetric impact the capex surge will have on corporate profits today, versus several years from now.

Foreign valuations experienced nowhere near the expansion enjoyed by U.S. stocks during the latest bull market, but their cheaper valuations rarely seem to inoculate them from outsized losses during corrections and bear markets.

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The traditional economic indicators are no longer as relevant as people think, and China’s condition may not be as bad as most fear.

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We revisit this long-held industry group and explain our positive outlook going forward.

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Our research shows that the best years to “Play The Bounce” are generally ones in which the stock market is heading down into the fourth quarter. We won’t rule out an allocation to the Bounce strategy in the weeks ahead.

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There are three Ds that are ruining the Fed’s little rate hike plan: the Dollar, Disinflation, and the Decline in wealth effect.

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The Short Interest Ratio performs well as a factor; on both the long and short sides.

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Amidst the Energy carnage, the Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing group is the exception, having returned over 7% YTD. Refiners are able to perform well in a variety of oil price scenarios—and tend to thrive in a falling crude oil price environment.

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We now assume that a cyclical bear market in equities is underway, and have positioned our tactical portfolios with net equity exposure of just 35%.

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Our valuation work shows many “garden variety” cyclical bear markets bottom out fairly close to long-term median valuation levels on the S&P 500. A reversion to median valuations would entail a peak-to-trough S&P 500 loss of –21.1%.

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We expect EM valuations will undercut their 2008 lows before the current market decline has run its course. That washout might serve up the best stock market bargains in many years.

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Despite the group’s big losses since May, the results show Small/Micro Cap Biotechs are still richly valued. As market volatility heats up, this group faces additional downside risk.

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1) Why The Big Sell-Off In Stocks? 2) Why Didn’t Interest Rates Go Lower? 3) Why Was The Dollar Weaker?

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In view of the last year’s steep decline in oil prices, Energy has been a frequent headline topic.

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Re-deflation is the period where reflation gives way to deflation or disinflation. It has been so prevalent that it triggered a new “Higher Risk” signal in our Risk Aversion Index.

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While this Consumer Discretionary group has not experienced six-plus-years of market outperformance, we think it may be poised for a late-game bounce. An overall lack of housing options may be just what this industry needs to give it a long-awaited boost.

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Deteriorating stock market breadth and worrisome leadership trends both suggest liquidity has already tightened; whether the Fed follows suit in September may now be just a formality.

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The S&P 500 Energy sector’s latest plunge puts it down by almost a third in the last 14 months. It now belongs to an exclusive list of sectors which have declined 30% on both an absolute basis and relative to the S&P 500!

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