Despite the improvement in market sentiment, U.S. bond yields were dragged lower by their international counterparts.

We think the Fed’s projection of four more hikes this year is absolutely unachievable, and we are no doubt siding with the market’s current projection of one hike, at most (if any), this year.

Bear markets need a “hook”—some sort of misdirection that keeps the majority hoping. Our work suggests a primary bear market is underway, and we fear oil is this bear’s hook…but the problems run deeper than oil.

At the August and late January S&P 500 lows, both the Daily and Weekly NYSE New Lows figures exceeded 40% of Issues Traded —a degree of downside thrust rarely seen outside of bear markets.

In the context of a low growth/low inflation environment, with the Fed taking its time to guide rates upward, fixed income type of investments may pale by comparison to dividend paying stocks.

Despite the already strong performance over the last three years, this group has recession proof attributes, positive industry trends, and widespread areas of potential growth.

We’ve been correctly positioned near our tactical portfolios’ equity minimums, yet we’re oddly compelled to use this month’s “Of Special Interest” section as a very public second-guessing of that move.

The Attractive-rated groups outperformed the Unattractive groups by 15.5% in 2015. This is the third positive year in a row, and the best performance differential since 2008.

Financials rose in December to rank #1 among sectors for the first time since the start of the financial crisis. In-line with our quantitative disciplines, we added a new Financials group to the Select Industries Portfolio: Regional Banks.

The most compelling evidence that a bear market is underway may not be what’s been punished (Transports, Small Caps), but what hasn’t. We believe the final bull market highs of any composite or sector index were recorded on December 29th.

A review of the past year’s performance of “Dream” and “Nightmare” equity groups from back in 2014.

As another Chinese stock market drama is unfolding, we may see a repeat of last summer’s action, where U.S.-listed stocks with pending “going private” deals saw their discounts widen significantly.

The 2016 pattern looks good on paper, but if the excitement in the first week of the year is any indication, we highly doubt 2016 will turn out to be another typical election year.

It’s a scary thought but what does 2015 have in common with the infamous years of 2001, 2008, and 2009? An earnings recession for the S&P 500 — and the 2015 vintage certainly has some unique traits.

The second month of Q3 2015 earnings reports registered an Up/Down Ratio of 1.11. On its own, the month of November was particularly weak with a stand-alone Up/Down Ratio of 0.97.

While the sequence of index peaks traced out YTD is not exactly a textbook one, the market’s internal diffusion is comparable to that seen at many major tops, including 2000 and 2007.

The year has been especially tough on managers who might have shared our cyclical worries over the stock market, but who’ve elected to stay fully invested via seemingly lower risk value approaches.

After nearly six years, the Industrials sector has reclaimed a top three spot among the GS Score’s Broad Sector Composite rankings—six of the sector’s 18 groups rank Attractive and two are in High Neutral. Construction & Engineering, an Industrials sector group, offers diversity in several ways—from the nature of its underlying businesses, and through areas of strength supporting the GS Score factor categories.

Despite Large Cap Growth lagging in November, it has been a much better year for Growth stocks. All three Value segments remain in negative territory YTD.

At this point, the worst outcome for the risk markets would be no hike in December.