We study the effect of company guidance on ER-day price volatility. Do companies issuing more frequent and detailed guidance help to prevent big surprises on ER day?

Investors brushed off a global economic slowdown and drove up the value of risky assets. Current low-quality leadership has been in place for eight months thus far.

Investing is, by its very nature, a forward-looking endeavor. The returns that are earned and the risks that are incurred by investments made today will only be determined tomorrow.

When we complain about the stock market’s inflated valuation levels, we’re unintentionally giving short shrift to the 50% of the global-market capitalization that resides outside the U.S. We’d be hard-pressed to describe the valuation of Developed foreign markets as any higher than neutral.

A look at Health Care groups’ historical performance both pre-election and post-election; we identify past trends of leaders and laggards in each period.

The upcoming election is likely to have wide-ranging impacts on both monetary and fiscal policies and we expect election risk to overshadow the Fed policy risk for the time being.

A client inquiry led us to take a fresh look at the relationship between current valuations and subsequent stock market returns, which is a regular feature in our Benchmarks publication.

Bond mutual funds, bond ETFs, and domestic-focused equity ETFs are the only categories registering material positive cash flows YTD.

The Major Trend Index edged up 0.02 to a ratio of 1.27 for the week ended September 30th, remaining within a narrow but decisively bullish band between the 1.20-1.30 level for the ninth consecutive week.

Inflation is slightly stronger than expected but has no impact on policy decisions. Right now, both the market and the data are telling the Fed to put the rate hike on hold. If the Fed decides to pass in September, there is a very good chance that the Fed might not be able to hike at all this year.

The ER price impact has shifted higher post 2008-2009 financial crisis, and the movement has been more pronounced in the Small Cap universe. A look at analyst coverage and accuracy of estimates.

Our EM Allocation Model triggered a BUY at the end of August after 5 1/2-years in bear mode. This upgrade is consistent with a cyclical leadership run of one to four years relative to Developed Markets.

An encouraging break from a 15-month leadership pattern: Low Vol stocks have rolled over since mid-July, while the High Beta cohort has finally eclipsed its late-April highs.

The impact of atypically-high current valuations has become a challenge for style-box investing. High quality, mature dividend payers have habitually resided in the Value and Blend boxes, but investors have bid up those valuations as they look for alternatives to low bond yields.

Attractive-rated groups include Building Products, Homebuilding, and Household Durables—these three groups possess similar industry drivers and thus exhibit highly-correlated stock returns.

Whether rates hike in September or December, we know the Fed will be very supportive of the market and the biggest beneficiaries will likely be EM and higher-yielding assets.

Inflation is weak in July but the rebound in oil prices, the renewed weakness in the dollar and the strength in Chinese Yuan are all positive for inflation expectations in the near term. The disinflationary headwinds from outside of the U.S. are only getting stronger, not weaker. It’s hard to disagree with the market’s low rate hike expectations.

Performance and valuation of the three Quality factors are diverging. From a valuation standpoint, we might see a reversal in performance, with the Stability factor weakening and the Leverage factor strengthening.

There was a major cyclical BUY signal (VLT Momentum) for the S&P 500 in late-May, and as of July’s close, that bullish development was reinforced by a new VLT BUY signal on the Russell 2000.

To revisit the all-time valuation peak of March 2000, the S&P 500 would have to reach 3455 (not a forecast!). A reversion to 1957-to-date median valuations implies an S&P 500 loss of 22%. That’s a serious loss, but hardly on the order of a “busted bubble.”