The 2.00%-4.99% yield range is the sweet spot for yield investors from a risk/reward standpoint; while the other end of the spectrum (>5% yield) incurs too much risk for the fat payouts. Here we spotlight four ETF strategies that focus on dividend paying stocks.

One portfolio strategy that attracts our interest is a barbell between Growth or Quality on the bullish side, paired with a Low or Minimum Volatility sleeve for the bearish side. This approach deals with today’s uncertainties by essentially “deciding not to decide.”

Amazon has become synonymous with the Internet Retail industry, however, this group is comprised of a diverse mix of companies ranging across the market spectrum, and strength is being exhibited throughout the group.

The recent rate cut managed to bring policy uncertainty back into the market by two seemingly harmless words—”mid-cycle adjustment.”

The Momentum category lost ground in the latest calculation, with more than three-quarters of the loss reflecting a flip in one of our “long-term” momentum sub-models from 50% bullish in the prior week, to maximum bearish at Friday’s close.

This issue of Leuthold Quick Takes reviews the conflicted nature of investor sentiment as seen by Doug Ramsey (Chief Investment Officer) and Jim Paulsen (Chief Investment Strategist).

Growth in M1 and M2 money supply has picked up, offsetting the bearish readings for Adjusted Reserves and the Fed balance sheet. Momentum category also strengthened.

The Momentum category improved despite last week’s modest market losses, with some of the longer-term trend work improving. Daily and weekly 52-week lows for the NASDAQ remain elevated, reflecting the increasing concentration of strength in Technology stocks.

We think that the economic surprises, as well as the yield uptick, reflect an unwind of extremely one-sided positioning rather than an indication of a second-half economic rebound.

The headline CPI numbers are in line while Core CPI is slightly ahead of consensus. Higher tariffs are not showing through import prices yet. Global slowdown underpins recent inflation path.

Factors provide investors with the ability to shift their portfolio’s characteristics to fit a particular economic and market outlook.  Value might look appealing under one set of conditions while Quality might be more desirable in another. We developed a research platform that analyzes various drivers of factor returns, summarized in Exhibit 1. 

A recent trip to the Netherlands included visits to The Rijksmuseum and The Mauritshuis to view paintings including The Night Watch, widely acclaimed as Rembrandt’s greatest work, and Vermeer’s equally celebrated Girl with a Pearl Earring.

The Momentum category continues to grind higher, but this push has predictably stirred up investor enthusiasm (as measured this week by an identical decline in our Attitudinal composite). At the same time, longer-term measures like CEO Confidence, Small Business Optimism, and Consumer Confidence have all weakened in the latest reports, suggesting a rollover in animal spirits could be underway.

We’ve never understood investment quants’ desire to project correlations among assets. Such correlations are inherently unstable.

One of the more impressive feats that bullish pundits have pulled off is their successful portrayal of themselves as lonely and misunderstand contrarians even as the eleventh year of a cyclical bull market grinds on.

The 10-year-old bull grabs most of the headlines, but its younger sibling has begun to command more respect.

The pattern of sharp sell-offs followed by equally sharp rallies continued in June. Most risky assets recouped nearly all the losses suffered in May, and then some.

Last month we noted that current interest-rate expectations might indicate good timing for dividend investments; however, we strongly suggested being selective, and lean toward high-quality dividend payers.

The bounce in the Economic category interrupted its last few months’ steady grind lower; the increase was led mostly by an upgrade to the NOPE Index (ISM New Orders Minus Price Index), which moved from high neutral to moderately bullish. The action of individual components is hardly reassuring, however.