There’s been a major return benefit for selling AAPL when it hits a 7% SPX weight and repurchasing after reverting back to a 6% weight. We tracked three options to switch into after a 7% “sell” trigger, holding till a new buy is flagged, and each crushed the approach of holding AAPL through the rotation.

Walmart’s performance and expanding P/E ratio contradicts the Staples sector’s less dynamic results, so either Walmart is commanding a growth premium, or investors are applying different valuation standards across the sector. Either way, count us as skeptical.

The evolution of BDC asset values may shed new light on how much of the bear market in alternative asset management stocks is due to genuine economic risk and how much is fueled by an over-reaction to the software and redemption scare.

Private credit has dominated headlines for all the wrong reasons, devastating alternative asset managers linked to that space. When we see a group of stocks with 30%+ losses in a matter of months, our contrarian “Spidey-Sense” starts to tingle, and we begin to wonder if a bargain is in the making.

Sentiment is generally a contrarian indicator, i.e., extreme optimism foretells lower future returns and vice versa. Yet, there are backdrops in which enthusiastic sentiment coexists with ongoing equity gains.

Read this week's Major Trend

Read this week's Major Trend. 

The launch of Operation Epic Fury on February 28th triggered a 51% surge in WTI crude in just three weeks, reigniting investor fears of economic disruption reminiscent of the 1973 OPEC embargo. As tactical investors, we were curious to see what the historical impact of sharp oil price spikes has been on the stock market and on important macro indicators. This analysis evaluates 15 distinct oil price shock episodes since 1985, each characterized by a greater than 20% price increase within 30 days, to assess the historical impact on equity markets, GDP, inflation, and interest rates.

Read this week's Major Trend. 

Read this week's Major Trend. 

The latest CPI numbers are in-line, but the war complicates the outlook. Our scorecard shifts close to neutral and we recommend a more cautious stance toward inflation.

Read this week's Major Trend. 

Employment growth across sectors is now highly concentrated, indicating the job market is being held up by an ever-dwindling cohort of prosperous industries. Coupled with lackluster growth in 2025, this is cause for concern. Yet, history suggests that relief could be just beyond the horizon.

Dispersion remains elevated among factors, with growth selling off and momentum turning in extreme performance spreads. Low-volatility names finally did well after a long stretch of underperformance.

Those complaining about the “Top 1%” controlling all the wealth may finally be getting some satisfaction. Since Halloween, it has been mostly rough sledding for our five-member “4% Club” contingent.

We tackle the challenge of appraising an investment that doesn’t produce income or cash flow by weighing the price of gold against other familiar investments and concepts that can be quantified—like home prices and inflation.

When bombs fly, the reward for bravery is rarely paid on schedule. We do not think this is the time to heroically outguess geopolitics or to confuse short-term fortitude with long-term clarity.

If the dot-com boom was a tale of public markets eagerly underwriting a technological future and then abruptly withdrawing that support, the AI fervor looks like a story of private capital and corporate balance sheets quietly doing the same—but with far less accountability.

Equity market resilience against war headlines, AI disruption fears, and private credit stress have so far been largely supported by a rare “Goldilocks” macro setup. Enter the three bears: Software stocks, private credit/BDCs, and bitcoin.

With S&P 500 Q4 reporting winding down, estimated operating EPS is now 6.9% higher than at the start of the year.